The Black Swan - a lesson in randomness

The Black Swan didn't exist until it was discovered at random in Australia.  Just because something has never happened before doesn't mean it won't.

An accident is a 'black swan,' a random event that could not be anticipated.  It's an unexpected, rare occurrence with massive after-effects.  According to 'The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable,' these events lie outside 'the tunnel of possibilities.'  They are entirely unpredictable, random and unlikely to ever happen.  Yet they do.

According to Psychologies Magazine, (November) the concept of randomness makes people uncomfortable.  Human brains are designed to create connections and to utilize past experiences.  When something out of the ordinary happens humans strive to explain it, quantify it, analyse it.  We look for certainty in an uncertain world: predicting the weather; forecasting economics and planning ahead.  We forget that we are not in control and that every day we live we are drifting this way and that, under the influence of larger factors at work.  Take the Butterfly Effect, for example, a theory beautifully explored in Micheal Cricthron's Jurassic Park and the 2004 Aston Kutcher film of the same title.  

The Butterfly Effect, another term for Chaos Theory states that the sensitive dependence on initial conditions means a tiny change in circumstances or influences can result in a large difference to a later state. A theoretical example of this is the musing that a hurricane's formation could result from whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before.

An accident is too often caused by a series of unfortunate events, an inexplicable combination of factors that when written on paper could be the premise of a terrible Soap Opera episode.  Life is often stranger than fiction.  According to philosophers, the key to the Black Swan is being able to take from this sudden, highly impactful occurrence.  How can we take from the negative and turn it into a positive outcome?

Many success stories in history are due to an individual being able to view a seemingly negative event as an opportunity and turn it into something else.  People assume it is hard work or persistence that turns people into 'greats' but it is often resilience in the face of adversity as well as luck.  These people have the ability to turn an highly improbable and unpredictable occurrence to their advantage.

Crucially, it's these 'Black Swans' that have the biggest impact on history.  The biggest changes often happen in times of uncertainty and instability when increasing numbers of unusual opportunities open.   Examples include companies like Facebook and Apple who have seized the market through their ability to optimize today's culture.  Starbucks came along when Howard Schultz attended a homeware conference in Milan and was struck by the city's coffee bar culture. Katie Piper had a life-changing experience and decided to open a charity in order to support others, changing the course of her life.  Pasteur discovered penicillin when he forgot to wash up some petri dishes and because he had a naturally curious nature.  Many notable inventions in history have occurred because something happened by chance and someone took the opportunity to pursue it.  In Bill Bryson's novels 'A Short History of Nearly Everything' and 'At Home: A Short History of Private Life,' we are shown time and time again how our history is made up of layers of serendipity, luck and chance.  Hard work and persistence do pay off but it seems they only have an impact if the stars are aligned!

So how does this affect you or me?  It's important to embrace randomness and to try to not to be affronted when things don't go to plan.  It's about seeing your accident or life-changing circumstance as a door to something new and not being afraid to open it.  We must stop predicting how life will turn out and instead, try to be prepared for it.  I can't predict whether or not my scarring will fade to a level I can accept but I can prepare for life if it doesn't.

I would not be the person today without my accident.  However much I accept this, at just over a year later, I can still safely say if I had known that someone would throw a flammable on a BBQ I would have gone home early.  I'm not at that stage where I can fully accept my fate.  Yet I can see how the path of my life has changed because of the experience and where I have utilised opportunities that would never have presented themselves otherwise.  My identity has developed, my outlook has altered;  I imagine in the future I will be more content with my lot.  My relationships have strengthened and I've met many people from all walks of life which can only expand my mind.  I've found solace in writing and fortitude in knowing that people read my words.  In the future I know I will choose a different route because my priorities have been influenced by Friday 22nd July 2011 - my very own Black Swan.





References:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Seize the Day, Psychologies, November Issue

A Short History of Nearly Everything and At Home: A Short History of Private Life by Bill Bryson

Wikipedia 

Let me tell you a secret... 'The Secret' By Rhonda Byrne

When you're feeling things are a struggle, it's worth considering a motivational book. Sometimes you can feel quite alone with your situation and the written word of someone else can be comforting. It can remind you that there's a light at the end of the tunnel and encourage you to see things in a different way.

I recently read'The Secret' by Rhondra Byrne. It remained a best-seller for a number of weeks despite some criticism. It mostly delves into The Law of Attraction and delivers it in a tantalising, sensationalist way that must have sent millions into a frenzy of excitement. "You mean all I have to do is think about what I want and it'll happen?" (Cue rubbing together of hands with eyes squeezed shut and a whirl of thoughts of a red Ferrari, a Caribbean beach and a playboy mansion.) Like anything that promises grandeur, some readers have taken the book to cult-like extremes. Yet it's still worth taking in as a critical reader.

The Law of Attraction basically suggests that 'like attracts like.' For example, if you think positive thoughts, more positive thoughts will follow. Along with positive thoughts, come positive events and vice versa. Byrne states that if you want something you should use the process of visualisation to imagine yourself with that which you want, followed by gratitude once you have received it. There are undercurrents of the Bible here, Byrne tells the reader to 'Ask, Believe, and Receive.' According to Wikipedia, this is based on a quote from Matthew, 21:22 in the Bible: "And all things, whatsoever ye shall ask in prayer, believing, ye shall receive."

Now, on a logical level, 'The Secret' sounds like madness. Believing that natural frequencies in the Universe affect everything we do depending on our degree of positivity is akin to papering our walls with tin foil and sitting in the corner. Yet, there is definitely something more to positive thinking and visualisation. Positive people heal better. People who are optimistic are more likely to be successful in their lives. People who believe they are lucky, are lucky.

I do agree that positive thinking and visualisation are worth practising and it's got me wondering about events in my own life...

...I wanted to be a teacher. I thought and thought about being a teacher and I spent time imagining (visualising) what this would be like. Thinking about it so much meant I began to research it and then applied for a post on a training course. I thought positively about it as I felt this was what I was meant to do. Other people's opinions reinforced this notion. By the time I came to the interview I was ready to go, acting like the teacher I wanted to be. So although I didn't spontaneously wake up as a teacher after thinking positively about being one (which is what 'The Secret' implies) my thinking process did lead to me pursuing this career and successfully gaining a sought-after post within a matter of weeks. On the outside world this looked like luck. My friends joked that I had a Fairy Godmother. Actually, underneath this process there was a lot of legwork on my part. I had the idea between my teeth and I wasn't going to let it go. Positive thinking had lead me to be successful but only by giving me perseverance and confidence, not by attracting a mystical frequency from the Universe.

Now I believe I'm a lucky person and I do think there was a degree of luck running alongside the hard work of becoming a teacher. Believing in luck means I think good things will spontaneously happen to me simply because the stars are aligned. In my life, I have been lucky most of the time. I recently saw a Channel 4 programme called 'The Experiments' in which Derren Brown looked at perceptions of luck and the way people's thinking affects them. He investigated why some people attracted luck and others misfortune. Derren Brown identified a man who thought he was unlucky. Brown then set up a series of opportunities for this man including leaving money on the floor in his path and a winning lottery ticket. As this man didn't think he was lucky, he missed all the opportunities, even when they were right in front of him. You can watch this episode here - Derren Brown, The Secret of Luck, Episode 4 I interpret this to mean that if you think you're lucky, you will be lucky because you are expecting to be.

But as mentioned before, it's not all down to luck either. It's hard work and perseverance. Another experiment that comes to mind involves sprinters and visualisation. It is very common for athletes to use this technique to perform at their best. When hooking people up to monitors and asking them to visualise something, their brain fires in the same regions that would if they were really doing it. Linking to this, I came across an interesting story in my Psychology A-Level about a man called Roger Bannister. Once, it was thought no human could run faster than the World Record that had been set and that no one would achieve a 4 minute mile. For years, no one broke that record because it was held as gospel that humans were physically limited in speed. Because it was deemed impossible, it was impossible. One day a man came along who thought he could break that record. He visualised breaking it and was convinced he would be the one to do it. And so he did. Everyone was amazed because scientifically, it was thought no one could do it! BBC coverage 6 May 1954



One of 'The Secret's' points I don't agree with and in fact, am a little offended by is that because we are able to attract good things to us by thinking good thoughts, we equally attract bad things to us through bad thoughts. This culminates by Byrne saying that we attract everything that happens to us, including accidents and illness. I really don't think this is the case. I didn't have an accident because I thought negatively that day, that week or that month. I had an accident because sometimes things do 'just happen.' When they have happened, THEN you look for the positive and take from it to make you a better person.

Despite this criticism, I think 'The Secret' is an important book to read because it shows the power of thought. The body and mind are closely connected and can affect each other. When recovering, medical services often look independently at the body and forget the strength of mind over matter. As individuals, it is up to us to educate ourselves in positive thinking and use it to overcome the challenges we face.


The Secret

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